Canadians can expect to pay 3-5 per cent more for food in 2017, an increase of as much as $420 for an average family.
That鈥檚 the conclusion of the seventh edition of Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report, published for the first time this year at AV俱乐部.
Built on the expertise of authors and advisors from four different Dal faculties 鈥� Management, Computer Science, Science and Agriculture 鈥� the Food Price Report is led by Sylvain Charlebois, dean of the Faculty of Management. The popular annual report forecasts food prices for the upcoming year across different sectors and analyzes trends in Canada鈥檚 food industries.
鈥淔ood pricing affects all Canadians,鈥� says Dr. Charlebois, who previously led the project out of the University of Guelph. 鈥淚t affects our quality of life. It鈥檚 top of mind for everyone every single day when we go out to buy food, whether at a restaurant or at a grocery store. And many Canadians struggle to cope with fluctuating food prices.鈥�
Read the full report: Canada's Food Price Report 2017
Higher increases for 2017
So what does 2017 hold for food prices?
鈥淯nfortunately, it鈥檚 not great news for families with less means,鈥� says Dr. Charlebois.
An increase of 3-5 per cent in food prices would be considerably higher than the rate of inflation (typically 1-2 per cent), and larger than 2016 (about 2.5 per cent). While dairy/eggs and bakery/cereal are expected to remain stable and within acceptable inflation rates, other foods could see much higher increases: fruits and nuts by 3-5 per cent; vegetables, meats and other food items by upwards of 4-6 per cent.
鈥淭he biggest factor will be the falling Canadian dollar,鈥� explains Dr. Charlebois. 鈥淕iven how many food products we import from abroad, our food economy is vulnerable to currency fluctuations.鈥�
Other drivers that inform the report鈥檚 projections include La Nina weather patterns and the incoming Trump administration in the U.S. 鈥� which, while rife with uncertainty, suggests a forthcoming period of American protectionism that could initiate a 鈥渃ommodity super-cycle,鈥� raising food prices for Canadians.
Previous editions of the report have generated significant national media attention, and this year鈥檚 is expected to be no different.
鈥淲e are dealing with a more engaged marketplace than ever before,鈥� says Dr. Charlebois. 鈥淧eople want to engage with the food supply chain, and examining price is one to do it.
鈥淎nd it鈥檚 also that the report is not just about price: it鈥檚 about the future of food. It鈥檚 about the quality of the food we eat, it鈥檚 about food cultures; it鈥檚 a multidimensional report around food.鈥�
The report also considers possible trends in food and food policy for the year ahead. For 2017, its authors discuss celebration of Canadian food (in honour of Canada鈥檚 150th), food science fears and food fraud awareness.
Read the full report: Canada's Food Price Report 2017
Built on Dal data science
One reason Dr. Charlebois was keen to bring the report with him to AV俱乐部 when he arrived as dean earlier this year was the opportunity to work with the university鈥檚 data scientists.
鈥淚 knew we鈥檇 have access to different kinds of expertise, and AV俱乐部 is one of the stronger schools in the country around data analytics and predictive analytics, if not the strongest,鈥� he says.
This year鈥檚 report is the first to use a machine learning model to shape its forecast 鈥� a combination of algorithms built on more than 20 independent statistical variables like household income, fuel prices, global agricultural production and more. The model was built by researchers in Dal鈥檚 Faculty of Computer Science, led by Master鈥檚 of Electronic Commerce student Jabez (Jay) Harris together with Professor Vlado Keselj and PhD student Colin Conrad.
Master's student Jay Harris (left) with lead author Sylvain Charlebois.
Harris, an international student from the Caribbean, has spent about 20 hours a week on the project over the past couple of months, building and running the 鈥渂lack box鈥� that crunches the report鈥檚 numbers.
鈥淧art of data science is finding the anomalies, and so part of my role was to poke into the data, find and filter out the variables that just don鈥檛 make sense with the rest of the model,鈥� explains Harris.
Leveraging cross-university expertise
But the process doesn鈥檛 start and end with a computer model.
鈥淲e allow the model to be the conversation starter amongst ourselves as advisors,鈥� explains Dr. Charlebois. 鈥淲e run it, then assess whether that makes sense for what could happen over the next 12 months with food prices. That鈥檚 how we come up with our forecasts.鈥�
The advisors on this year鈥檚 report included:
- Peter Tyedmers, director of Dal鈥檚 School for Research and Environmental Studies, who studies the sustainability of food systems (and later this week is taking part in the Nobel Week Dialogue in Sweden);
- Megan Bailey of Dal鈥檚 Marine Affairs Program, Canada Research Chair in Integrated Ocean and Coastal Governance, who researches fisheries management;聽
- Two researchers from Dal鈥檚 Faculty of Agriculture: Gary Grant and Simon Somogyi, both experts in agricultural economics from Department of Business & Social Sciences.
鈥淓veryone had a really open mind about the report,鈥� says Dr. Charlebois. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a very populist report 鈥� not your ordinary scientific paper. But everyone got what we were trying to achieve. It was a really great team.鈥�
Dr. Charlebois says now that the report is established at AV俱乐部, he may look to expand its authorship even further next year, possibly to experts at other universities. As for grad student Harris, he says it鈥檚 been an incredible experience working on his first Food Price Report 鈥� so much so that he鈥檚 considering shifting his thesis project to focus on it.
鈥淲hat I got out of it is that data science is really about communication,鈥� says Harris. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about storytelling, finding the data and the new way to relate it to people.鈥�
Read the full report: Canada's Food Price Report 2017