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Author is a professor in food distribution and policy in the Faculty of Agriculture at AV¾ãÀÖ²¿. Ìý

The Food Price Report 2019, released by AV¾ãÀÖ²¿ and the University of Guelph in December, suggested vegetable prices will go up by as much as six per cent this year. That’s significant because, unlike meat or fish, fewer alternatives exist when it comes to replacing vegetables.

Coming on the report’s heels was the new Canada’s Food Guide, which recommended Canadians

According to the Food Report, El Niño is to blame for rising vegetable prices, since Canada imports a great quantity of veggies from regions prone to drought during El Niño periods, including the western United States and northern Mexico.

The six per cent increase is in addition to the 4.8 per cent hike in vegetable prices in 2018.

Given that we could experience another year of significant price increases, many wonder whether eating local produce is a better option.

Global supply chains have allowed us to become more efficient and given consumers more choices and a broader selection of affordable food products. But eating local has its advantages, too.

Reducing your carbon footprint

The environmental case for eating local is . You can .

And local food is consistently priced, if generally higher. Price is much less volatile when short-circuit distribution systems are involved. The number of intermediaries is limited compared to global food chains, which are exposed to environmental fluctuations and differing economic conditions, and can all lead to greater cost variations.

Extensive, large-scale networks always give markets what they need at the right time, at the right place, at a decent price and with an acceptable level of quality — until something goes terribly wrong. A single failure can lead to huge disruptions that affect many people.

A case in point is the in November. Fresh lettuce grown in California and Arizona is delivered to Canadians at a decent price. But with the E. coli outbreak in romaine lettuce, not only did people get sick, but the prices of leafy greens in Canada skyrocketed.

The prevented romaine lettuce from entering Canada. When that happens, importers must procure similar products elsewhere, likely at higher cost, to meet consumer expectations. Consumers want their leafy greens, even in winter, no matter what.

Eventually, the situation goes back to normal and most have forgotten about the romaine lettuce crisis. That’s the nature of market failures. Systems adapt and improve over time.

Local food systems more stable

But many people in the marketplace envy the stability and sustainability of local food systems. Unlike global supply chain systems, transparency is a non-issue since most producers know each other.

Buying locally grown vegetables can also give some peace of mind to shoppers. You’ll likely pay more, but the prices are mostly predictable. Simplicity has its virtues, but it also comes at a cost. Local food is typically more expensive available in the same marketplace.

for the simple fact that agriculture is often a distant concept to them. Some Canadians have never been to a farm. Buying local is the one way to feel a real connection with agriculture and farmers.

There’s also more wealth in cities than rural communities. So although price is still a consideration for urban dwellers, it’s more important to less wealthy consumers in rural areas.

That’s where global supply chains come in.

Given that Canadians have access to one of the most affordable food baskets in the world relative to household income, global supply chains appear to be serving them well.

Wintry climate leaves us with few options

And getting our vegetable fix from all over the world isn’t such a bad idea. Our nordic climate doesn’t give us many options. But global supply chains come with their fair share of risks, which in turn generate price volatility.

At the same time, buying local produce can be critical to our agri-food economy. In many parts of the country, local vegetable production is a priority, through vertical farms, greenhouses using novel technologies and other initiatives.

Access to more locally grown vegetables, while striking a balance between local and global, will be key.

But rising vegetable prices are a challenge for many, especially those with limited incomes. That means visiting the freezer aisle may not be a bad idea. It may not taste the same as fresh, but you’ll get the same nutritional value from frozen veggies.

Amid all this, there is one piece of good news: The Food Price Report 2019 suggests that the cost of meat and fish products will drop this year by up to three per cent.

That’s the first decline in fish and meat prices in the study’s nine-year history.

So meat lovers can do a happy dance around the barbecue next summer. Just don’t forget the veggies.

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AV¾ãÀÖ²¿ is a founding partner of The Conversation Canada, an online media outlet providing independent, high-quality explanatory journalism. Originally established in Australia in 2011, it has had more than 85 commissioning editors and 30,000-plus academics register as contributors. A full list of articles written by AV¾ãÀÖ²¿ academics can be found onÌý.