The ocean holds 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere. It absorbs more carbon emissions than all the globe鈥檚 rainforests combined. Yet major changes that may impact the ocean鈥檚 role as the world鈥檚 most important carbon storage depot聽are not accounted for in Canada鈥檚 goal to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. In fact, these changes are not seriously considered in any global carbon targets.
It is an omission Anya Waite, AV俱乐部鈥檚 associate vice-president research (ocean), says we can no longer afford to make. To address the issue and its broader implications, Dr. Waite (pictured left) and a team of researchers initiated AV俱乐部鈥檚 application to the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, a program that empowers universities to transform key research strengths into world-leading capabilities.
鈥淭he ocean is doing almost all of the work to keep the world cool,鈥� say Dr. Waite, who is also the scientific director and CEO of the . 鈥淚t has already absorbed 90 per cent of the heat humans have produced and 40 per cent of fossil fuel emissions as carbon.鈥�
While policymakers acknowledge a possible gradual decline in the ocean鈥檚 ability to sequester carbon, Dr. Waite says their targets don鈥檛 come to grips with the impacts of significant environmental shifts.聽聽 聽
鈥淭he collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet at the same time as a slowing of the Gulf Stream or a massive Arctic melt; if these happen in concert, suddenly we have events that could completely change ocean carbon absorption,鈥� she says.
Just skimming the surface
Dr. Waite asserts that without comprehensive data reporting on the dynamics and composition of the ocean, policymakers will continue to draft targets that only skim the surface. They may also overlook opportunities to harness the ocean鈥檚 power to help mitigate climate change or build equitable adaptation policies that protect people from what might be a more rapidly accelerating problem than we thought. 聽
In an interview with AV俱乐部鈥檚 President Deep Saini for his Deep Dive series, Dr. Waite discussed the issue, and described the stakes and how AV俱乐部 and its partners at Universit茅 du Qu茅bec 脿 Rimouski, Universit茅 Laval, and Memorial University of Newfoundland plan to tackle the challenge if they receive support from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund.
A whole-university approach
If funded, the project will span a wide range of disciplines. It will include oceanographers, chemists, physicists, and atmospheric scientists focused on the ocean and its interaction with the air and land. It will include computer scientists and engineers who will leverage machine learning and artificial intelligence to create the computational models, processes, and data sets necessary to inform decision-makers. It will also include social scientists, legal experts, and Indigenous scholars with the skills to ensure scientific discoveries are transformed into policies that protect lives and preserve cultures.
鈥淲e need to understand how energy, gases, and particles are exchanged between the atmosphere and the ocean. It鈥檚 not a simple process and it聽can go in both directions,鈥� says Rachel Chang, Dal鈥檚 Canada Research Chair in Atmospheric Science (pictured right in blue). 鈥淭here are layers on top of the ocean that prevent gases from absorbing, there are waves, there are storms, there is sea spray,聽they can all聽have an impact. And the ultimate question is, how聽do they affect climate?鈥�
It's queries like this that need to be resolved to provide a better picture of how to bring the ocean into the climate target equation. But calculations don鈥檛 stop there. Kiran Banerjee, Dal鈥檚 Canada Research Chair in Forced Migration and Refugee Policy is focused on how climate is playing an accelerating role in the displacement of people. If the ocean鈥檚 carbon absorption processes change dramatically, his work will be more urgently needed than ever.
鈥淩ecord levels of forced global displacement are pushing the issue onto the international agenda. And yet, we鈥檝e made no progress dealing with the climate-induced migration that promises to displace people at a scale of magnitude that far exceeds anything we have seen before,鈥� says Dr. Banerjee. 鈥淔uture challenges require a better understanding of what climate changes are coming so the global community can respond.鈥�
Kiran Banerjee.
Building a swell of support
鈥淲ith this project, AV俱乐部 would take a leading role nationally and internationally in contributing to the science and policymaking required to contend with climate change,鈥� says Alice Aiken, AV俱乐部鈥檚 vice-president, research and innovation. 鈥淥ur long term and steady investment in building expertise in ocean and climate research across the natural, applied and social sciences and our partnerships with similarly-focused universities makes us the natural choice for this research mission.鈥�
At the beginning of April, a letter of intent was submitted to inform the Canada First Research Excellence Fund selection committee that AV俱乐部 and its partners would like to participate in the application process. A decision on whether AV俱乐部 may go forward with its application will be made in June and a final decision on the funding application itself will be made in January 2023.
To fortify AV俱乐部鈥檚 application, the was launched to build awareness and engagement with key stakeholders. Throughout the review process, profiles of the researchers contributing to the project from across the four universities will be shared.
The project has already received substantial international interest and support from organizations such as NASA and GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany, as well as key scholars in the United Kingdom and from industry which will play an important role in mitigation strategies.
鈥淭here has been a surge of support internationally for this proposal,鈥� says Dr. Waite. 鈥淲e have a number of colleagues around the world crossing their fingers that we鈥檙e successful.鈥�