Canada's Food Price Report 2024
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2024听predicts Canadians听will finally get relief from 鈥渟ticker-shock鈥� in 2024
Food price increases will be lower than in previous years.
Halifax听鈥斕鼺ood affordability remains a top concern for Canadians.听Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2024听forecasts that overall food prices will increase by 2.5% to 4.5%. The average family of four is expected to spend $16,297.20 on food in 2024, an increase of up to $701.79 from last year. The most significant increases range from 5% to 7% in the categories of bakery, meat, and vegetables.
This marks the 14th听edition of听Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report,听an annual collaboration between research partners听AV俱乐部, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia.听This cross-country research team听uses historical data sources, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to make predictions about Canadian food prices. Within this interdisciplinary approach, scholars from the participating universities contribute insights and expertise from diverse fields.听
2023 was a tumultuous year politically, environmentally, and economically. There were unprecedented wildfires and flooding across Canada. The conflict in Europe and unrest in the Middle East continue to affect energy costs and commodity prices.听Canadians face many financial pressures, such as higher rental rates and utilities, and rising personal debt. 鈥淭he year 2023 posed significant financial challenges for Canadian families, one of the toughest in recent memory,鈥澨鼶r. Sylvain Charlebois, project lead, professor, and听Director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at AV俱乐部.听Food Bank Canada鈥檚听2023 Hunger Count听revealed there were nearly 2 million food bank visits in Canada in 2023, which is the highest level on record, and a 78.5% increase since March 2019.
Despite inflation, Canadians are spending less on food this year. Food retail sales data indicates a decline in monthly spend per capita between August 2022 and August 2023 (from $261.24 to $252.89). Estimated annual spending for a family of four in the past year was $693 lower than originally projected. However, this decrease is a concern to researchers. Reduced expenditures in the face of elevated food prices indicates Canadians are听decreasing the quantity and quality of food they are buying.听
Customers are losing trust in food sector corporations. There is a prevailing sentiment that grocers profit excessively and exploit inflationary trends. Profiteering and price gouging were common media stories. Canada Bread Company pled guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act. In 2023, industry employees felt empowered to seek improved wages and working conditions, with strikes occurring at Sobeys, Metro Inc., British Columbia ports, the St. Lawrence Seeway, Rogers Sugar Refinery, and Windsor Salt. These disputes resulted in product shortages and shipping delays.
Food prices are complicated and influenced by many global factors. Researchers say this is why we need听Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report.听鈥淭his听report examines the impact of food inflation on Canadians and possible reasons for food price inflation trends,鈥� says Kelleen L. Wiseman, Academic Director and Manager, Master of Food & Resource Economics at the University of British Columbia. 鈥淭his research makes a valuable contribution to the important topic of food affordability. The report data informs consumer expectations by familiarizing them with past and current trends.鈥�
Politicians should take note. 鈥淧olicy makers, the public, and business leaders all need tools to understand how trends may play out,鈥� says Dr. Evan Fraser, Director, Arrell Food Institute, the University of Guelph. 鈥�Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report听provides a grounded evidence base for discussions on how the landscape may change over the course of the next year.鈥�
The federal government is exploring competition in the Canadian grocery sector. The introduction of Bill C-56 could mean enhanced affordability. The Bill aims to promote competition in the grocery sector through proposed amendments to the Competition Act. But it is currently unclear if this goal will be met.
In general, researchers insist that this report predicts better prospects for consumers in 2024. Andrea Rankin, Research Associate at the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at AV俱乐部, says the report 鈥渙ffers some good news鈥� and provides 鈥渟ome relief鈥anadians can anticipate possibly calmer food prices through the coming year.鈥�
鈥淭he estimated increase of 2.5-4.5% for 2024 provides customers with much needed relief from the higher increases observed in previous years,鈥� says Stuart Smyth, Chair, Agri-Food Innovation and Sustainability Enhancement at the University of Saskatchewan. 鈥淭hey should expect to see a degree of stability return to food prices. I am optimistic that the phrase 鈥榮ticker-shock鈥� will become less commonly used throughout grocery stores in 2024.鈥�
For more information, please read the complete听Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report听2024 found below.
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Media Contacts
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director Agri-Food Analytics Lab,
AV俱乐部
sylvain.charlebois@dal.ca
Janet Music, Research Program Coordinator
Agri-Food Analytics Lab,
AV俱乐部
janet.music@dal.ca
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