Canada's Food Price Report 2020
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report marks 10 years of helping consumers understand their annual grocery bill
2020 report forecasts 2 to 4% increase in food prices for Canadian families
Halifax 鈥� The 10th annual edition of Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report forecasts a 2 to 4% increase in food prices in 2020, bringing the predicted annual cost of food for the average Canadian family to $12,667, an increase of $487 over 2019.
Canada鈥檚 Food Price Report 2020 is released jointly by AV俱乐部 and the University of Guelph. Predictions are made using historical data sources, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools developed over many years.
Last year鈥檚 forecast for annual food spending by the average Canadian family is expected to come within $23. 鈥淲e were surprised by how accurate our forecast was, despite vegetable prices going up by 12% rather than the predicted 4 to 6%. Forecasting is not easy, and we have learned from our successes and failures over the last 10 years,鈥� says AV俱乐部 Project Lead Sylvain Charlebois, Professor in the Faculties of Management and Agriculture. 鈥淔ood inflation is desirable, but when prices increase quickly families can be left behind.鈥�
鈥淐anadians deserve to know more about price changes in the food they consume and how those changes will impact them,鈥� adds AV俱乐部 researcher Eamonn McGuinty. 鈥淭his year, the Report reiterates the key headlines impacting food prices for Canadians: climate change, geopolitical conflicts, single-use plastic packaging, the effect of increasingly protectionist trade environments on Canada鈥檚 exports, disease outbreaks, and the ongoing technological disruption of the supply chain giving rise to more customizable and tailored food options."
The report鈥檚 authors forecast the following price changes for 2020, with meat in particular forecast to go up in price by 4 to 6% despite Canadians鈥� increasing interest in plant-based protein options.
| Food Categories | Anticipated Changes (%) |
| Bakery | 0% - 2% |
| Dairy | 1% - 3% |
| Fruits | 1.5% - 3.5% |
| Meat | 4% - 6% |
| Restaurants | 2% - 4% |
| Seafood | 2% - 4% |
| Vegetables | 2% - 4% |
| Other | 2% - 4% |
| Total Increase in Food Prices | 2% - 4% |
What do these forecasts mean for Canadian families struggling to afford healthy food? 鈥淎lready, one in eight听Canadian听households is food insecure,鈥� says Guelph Project Lead Simon Somogyi of the Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics.听鈥淲ith wage growth stagnant, Canadians听aren鈥檛 making more money, but they still have to eat. The ever-increasing use of food banks across the country is an example of how Canadians听can鈥檛 afford to put food on听their plates.鈥滷ood price increases in 2020 in British Columbia, Manitoba, Quebec, and Prince Edward Island are expected to exceed the national average, while price increases in Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are expected to be lower than the national average. The cost of food in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador is likely to align with the national average.
There are opportunities to mitigate costs over the longer term in spite of the challenges facing Canada鈥檚 food price landscape. 鈥淥ur own new food guide is encouraging Canadians to eat more vegetables,鈥� says Charlebois. 鈥淚ncreasing the quantity of vegetables and fruits we produce domestically would be a great start.鈥� This means food听policy in Canada needs to support strategies to grow vegetables and fruit all year听round, not just in warmer months, including subsidies for听indoor and greenhouse farming and funding for research and development into food plant breeds that grow听well indoors. In addition, Canada can fill a leadership gap by developing alternatives to single-use plastic materials, legislating plastic use, and implementing tax regimes that encourage producer responsibility.
This year鈥檚 research team also included AV俱乐部 colleagues Vlado Keselj (Faculty of Computer Science), Janet Music (Agri-Food Analytics Lab), Andrea Giusto (Department of Economics), and Don Fiander (DalAnalytics). They were joined by Joon Son (IBM Canada), Hyejung (Cathy) Bae and Emon Majumder (Applied Research, Nova Scotia Community College), and Jay Harris (Schulich School of Business, York University). University of Guelph researchers included Erna Van Duren and Francis Tapon (Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics), Paul Uys (Ontario Agricultural College), Jess Haines (Family Relations and Applied Nutrition), and Graham Taylor and Alexander Moksyakov (School of Engineering).
Media Contact:
Sylvain Charlebois, Senior Director
Agri-Food Analytics Lab
Faculty of Agriculture, AV俱乐部
Sylvain.Charlebois@dal.ca
902-222-4142 (cell)
Janet Music, Research Program Coordinator听
Agri-Food Analytics Lab
Faculty of Management, AV俱乐部
jlmusic@dal.ca
902-494-2471
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